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Short-Term Prediction of Passenger Demand in Multi-Zone Level: Temporal Convolutional Neural Network With Multi-Task Learning


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Abstract


Accurate short-term passenger demand prediction contributes to the coordination of traffic supply and demand. This paper proposes an end-to-end multi-task learning temporal convolutional neural network (MTL-TCNN) to predict the short-term passenger demand in a multi-zone level. Along with a feature selector named spatiotemporal dynamic time warping (ST-DTW) algorithm, this proposed MTL-TCNN is quite qualified for the multi-task prediction problem with the consideration of spatiotemporal correlations. Then, based on the car-calling demand data from Didi Chuxing, Chengdu, China, and taxi demand data from the New York City, the numerical results show that the MTL-TCNN outperforms both classic methods (i.e., historical average (HA), v-support vector machine (v-SVM), and XGBoost) and the state-of-the-art deep learning approaches [e.g., long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM)] in both the single task learning (STL) and multi-task learning (MTL) scenarios. In summary, the proposed MTL-TCNN with the ST-DTW algorithm is a promising method for shortterm passenger demand prediction in a multi-zone level.

KeyWords
Convolutional neural network (CNN), online fault diagnosis, real-time performance, signal-to-image conversion, transfer learning



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